How budget cuts in higher education are changing tenure-track outcomes for PhDs
The landscape for doctoral students—especially in the humanities—is shifting beneath our feet. As more institutions tighten their budgets and reshape their faculty models, the once assumed path to a tenure-track position is becoming less secure, or at least much less predictable. If you’re a humanities PhD candidate, the implication is clear: you must take control of your career path earlier, and with more strategic awareness.
What the data tells us
Across higher education, budget pressure and declining research funds are causing ripple effects. A recent survey found that 56 % of provosts report reductions in federal funding to their institutions. 
At the faculty level, traditional tenure-track/tenured roles are increasingly giving way to non-tenure track teaching or hybrid models. One analysis found that non-tenure-track faculty now account for nearly 70% of all faculty appointments in U.S. colleges and universities. 
In countries outside the U.S., we see sharper effects. For example, in South Korea a study of 10,442 PhD holders found an unemployment rate of 27 % and tied this in part to university budget cuts and fewer academic openings. 
The mismatch between PhD production and tenure-track hiring remains large. In one commentary, for Canada it was estimated that only about 15 % of PhDs landed first academic appointments as assistant professors, with demand stagnating even as supply grew. 
What this means for humanities PhD trajectories
For humanities doctoral students who may have entered grad school with a tenure-track academic job in mind, these trends raise important strategic questions:
Fewer traditional paths: With fewer tenure-track jobs and more teaching-contract or adjunct roles, your long-term outlook may need to consider alternative career pathways sooner.
More competition, more risk: With budget cuts, universities prioritize revenue-generating departments, large research grants, or teaching assignments, meaning competition for the few tenure lines intensifies.
Need for dual currency: Your academic credentials still matter—but increasingly, so do your professional readiness and ability to translate your PhD into roles beyond the academy.
Early decision-making counts: Waiting until your final year of your PhD to explore non-academic options is risky. Given the shifting terrain, starting earlier increases your strategic optionality.
Based on our experience: what we’ve seen and what to do
Having both been humanities PhDs and now co-creating a non-academic curriculum for PhDs through UnlimitEd Outcomes, Charlotte and I (Natalie) saw how the academic job market changed while we transitioned ourselves—and how important early action is.
Back when we were in our PhD programs, the assumption was “finish the dissertation, get the job.” Reality intervened: fewer openings, more contingent faculty, and growing pressure across institutions.
When we later engaged with university career-centres and faculty offices, we saw how budget constraints forced institutions to favor flexible staffing and non-traditional teaching models over new tenure hires.
For our curriculum work we emphasise: treat your dissertation phase as a time to build professional agility—not just research depth. Build networks, explore external roles, and create evidence of your capacity for applied work.
Practical steps for proactive PhD candidates
Track departmental and institutional trends: Ask in your department how many tenure-track lines opened in the last 5 years; what percentage of faculty are on fixed-term contracts. This gives you context.
Map your academic goal against market signals: If you still aim for a tenure-track job, identify which programs are hiring—what are their priorities? Are they shrinking, teaching-demand programs or research-heavy institutes?
Build parallel career capital: Pick a professional skill or micro-credential each year (e.g., instructional design, editorial project, digital humanities tool) that sits alongside your research.
Frame your dissertation as evidence of broader value: Show how you managed a long-term project, communicated to varied audiences, handled ambiguity. These are signals employers outside the academy look for.
Regular check-ins with your career advisor or network: Don’t wait until year 5. In year 2 or 3, meet with your university’s career centre, alumni, and professionals outside academia.
Plan for multiple outcomes: Create a “Plan A” (tenure-track) and “Plan B/C” (non-academic path, hybrid role) early. Allocate time and energy accordingly.
Why this matters now
Because institutional budget constraints aren’t likely to reverse quickly. Research funding stagnates, student demographics shift, tuition revenue is under pressure—and that means institutions are choosing staffing models less favourable to new tenure-track hires. By recognising this reality and acting early, PhDs in the humanities can avoid being blindsided and instead position themselves proactively.
Final thoughts
If you’re pursuing a humanities PhD, don’t misinterpret this as “tenure-track is dead.” It’s not—but what is dead is the assumption that the path is automatic or highly probable. Data shows more uncertainty, more competition, more institutional constraints. Your advantage will come from treating your PhD not only as a piece of scholarship but as a launchpad for a range of career possibilities.
Start early. Be intentional. Build parallel capacity. That’s how you gain control in a shifting landscape.